The analogy between GE, General Electric, Bosch, and Whirlpool, and the knowledge appliance fails when we think that the friction that existed to build electrical appliances will not exist when building knowledge appliances.
Hence any companies creating "Legal Appliances" will face massive competition due to the very small barriers to entry.
In this case, the winners will be the ones that actually positioned where the frictions are.
Possibly, although as someone building these things there's a fairly significant gap between "magic for a demo" and "ready for production" agentic systems. There's a very high-end skillset that will be able to architect them at scale that requires significant friction.
We are nowhere close to the legal appliance today but folks are working on it
The lawyer, the accountant, the physician, the office staff they each employed are now out of an income. Their income is demand that no longer exits for the items and services they needed, used or acquired. Some of those who provided the the items and services no longer demanded will be out of work and income. The cascade is endless except for those whose wealth is extraordinary. The "knowledge appliance" will have less and less demand by fewer and fewer viable providers of items and services. Until ...
This is the fearful perspective but the truth is that people will just remap what is “valuable” and in the medium term everyone will be happier as a result
I think, by definition, as you seem to agree, "in the medium term" not "everyone will be happier". The net damage and benefit from the economic feedback loop of human job replacement with AI agents is arguable. But the downside risks are so catastrophic, rose colored glasses won't help us examine the issue.
Our society has always operated on boom/bust cycles. This is just another one. The electrification example is a good rhyme, where things weren't amazing in 1931, but by the 50s and 60s the world looked pretty great - it's just trading short term comfort for long-term success.
I'm not cheering for people to be out of jobs (I'm likely more on the vulnerable end personally) but I am cheering for cheaper doctors for the average person which increases everyone's quality of life. When that happens people who are adaptable will have fantastic opportunities to take on the next challenges in the world
The analogy between GE, General Electric, Bosch, and Whirlpool, and the knowledge appliance fails when we think that the friction that existed to build electrical appliances will not exist when building knowledge appliances.
Hence any companies creating "Legal Appliances" will face massive competition due to the very small barriers to entry.
In this case, the winners will be the ones that actually positioned where the frictions are.
Possibly, although as someone building these things there's a fairly significant gap between "magic for a demo" and "ready for production" agentic systems. There's a very high-end skillset that will be able to architect them at scale that requires significant friction.
We are nowhere close to the legal appliance today but folks are working on it
The lawyer, the accountant, the physician, the office staff they each employed are now out of an income. Their income is demand that no longer exits for the items and services they needed, used or acquired. Some of those who provided the the items and services no longer demanded will be out of work and income. The cascade is endless except for those whose wealth is extraordinary. The "knowledge appliance" will have less and less demand by fewer and fewer viable providers of items and services. Until ...
This is the fearful perspective but the truth is that people will just remap what is “valuable” and in the medium term everyone will be happier as a result
Please tell me how the the lawyer, the accountant and the doctor happily "remap" their careers (which I am assuming they find "valuable").
It might not be happily, but it is inevitable
I think, by definition, as you seem to agree, "in the medium term" not "everyone will be happier". The net damage and benefit from the economic feedback loop of human job replacement with AI agents is arguable. But the downside risks are so catastrophic, rose colored glasses won't help us examine the issue.
Our society has always operated on boom/bust cycles. This is just another one. The electrification example is a good rhyme, where things weren't amazing in 1931, but by the 50s and 60s the world looked pretty great - it's just trading short term comfort for long-term success.
I'm not cheering for people to be out of jobs (I'm likely more on the vulnerable end personally) but I am cheering for cheaper doctors for the average person which increases everyone's quality of life. When that happens people who are adaptable will have fantastic opportunities to take on the next challenges in the world